Airplane Safety, by the Numbers

Air travel and safety

Every year, millions of people step onto a plane. Usually things go off without a hitch, but accidents do happen. So people are right to wonder about safety. So, really, how safe is it to fly?

People are curious about safety!

This is a no-brainer. Of course everyone wants to be safe! We can see public interest show up in google searches for "airline safety." It's no surprise it peaks as the summer travel season ramps up. It's strangely low during the winter holiday travel season. Maybe everyone is too busy stressing about holidays instead?

The public's interest in airline safety waxes and wanes. This graph shows a spikiness besides just the seasonal pattern. Probably what's happening is that occasional media sensations cause a surge in public interest. Overall, the trend over the past 15 years has been down. That means fewer people are concerned are air safety now than before. There's good reason for that to happen! Let's see what's been happening with air travel safety.

How safe are cars?

For comparison, let's talk about cars. Cars are safe, and getting safer. Here's a graph of fatalities per billion vehicle miles driven.

Driving was pretty dangerous in the olden days. It has gotten a lot safer over the past century. In fact, even as the number of miles driven continues to increase, the total number of fatalities is going down. The number peaked in 1969 and has been decreasing since. That's good news!

How safe are planes?

Planes are extremely safe. Unfortunately, airplane accidents are sensationalized for clicks. This can lead to a public perception of danger. In fact, airplane travel is far safer than car travel. This is true no matter how you slice it: by hour, by mile, by trip. Each time you get in a plane, your chance of injury is much, much less than each time you get into a car.

18,000 years

The numbers don't lie. Over the past 15 years, there has been an average of one airline fatality per 90 billion passenger miles. This means you'd have to spend 18,000 straight years in an airplane to have a 50/50 chance of dying in a plane accident. Compare this to cars. In cars, your chances are 50/50 after "just" 28 years. Mind you, that doesn't mean 28 years of being a driver. That means spending a total of 28 years behind the wheel. Most people only drive 290 hours a year. Still pretty safe, but the bottom line is that planes are much safer!

Let's put that in perspective

Here are some of the less common causes of death. Most people don't spend a lot of time worrying about the danger of fireworks. In fact, there's no specific name for a fear of fireworks (although ligyrophobia is a fear of loud noises generally). So it might surprise you to learn that you have a higher chance of meeting your end by fireworks than by airplane accident. Each of these are much rarer than dying from a lightning strike (which, to be fair, does have a name: astraphobia).

Putting it all together

FDR famously said that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. This may not be exactly true. There are plenty of things that pose real dangers to us. Fear is a healthy response which can help keep us out of trouble! But sometimes this healthy response is exaggerated. When that happens, instead of helping us, our fear can prevent us from enjoying our lives fully, and with no benefit in return for our caution. The fear of flying is definitely a case of this. With the hard facts in mind, you should book your next business or vacation trip with confidence. To the skies!

References

Gross, A. (2016, Sep 08). Americans Spend an Average of 17,600 Minutes Driving Each Year. Retrieved from https://newsroom.aaa.com/2016/09/americans-spend-average-17600-minutes-driving-year/#:~:text=During%20this%20time%2C%20drivers%20travelled,AAA%20Foundation%20for%20Traffic%20Safety

Data Sources

https://www.bts.gov/content/transportation-fatalities-mode

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2015/fi200.cfm

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/safety-record-of-u-s-air-carriers/#

https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/

https://trends.google.com/trends/?geo=US

Disclaimer: the above is a homework assignment. Copyrighted works are used under educational fair use. No copyright infringement is intended.